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Weekly Market Update – 20.03.2019
Bond Markets Weekly 20.03.2019 The FED has for the 2nd time in a row over delivered meanwhile USD bonds rallied The German council of economic experts has cut their GDP forecast by 50%. They expect that Germany will grow 0,8% in 2019 Like most commentators they expect that the global economy will re-accelerate in H2 2019. Last…
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The Fed has surprised for the second time in a row, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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Weekly Market Update – 14.03.2019
Bond Markets Weekly 14.03.2019 US treasury yield dropped sharply during the 2nd UK-Brexit debate in London A drop of the US 10-year treasury yield of more than 7 basis points during one trading day is very unusual. There were two events during this mini bond rally: Theresa May’s BREXIT defeat and softer US CPI data. Both might…
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S&P 500 above its 200 day average: Climbing the wall of worry Part II, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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Disinflation and not inflation is a key problem, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Disinflation and not inflation is a key problem, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel Disinflation and not inflation is a key problem for most central banks. Together with the global growth slowdown, we must expect more monetary stimulus. Unless, like in China and before in the US fiscal stimulus and/or structural reforms are finally implemented. The ECB has…
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SP at a resistance area, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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China’s export and import trends in January are encouraging, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
China’s export and import trends in January are encouraging, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel China’s export and import trends in January are encouraging. The export growth rebounded to 8.5% YoY after a 4.5% contraction in December 2018. China’s import from the US contracted by 41.1% YoY. I wonder how the Trump administration reacts to this new…
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Weekly Market Update – 15.02.2019
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“Risk on” sentiment continues, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
“Risk on” sentiment continues, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel Climbing the wall of worry. According to BAML Global Fund Manager Survey, professional investors have reduced their equity exposure; they are underweight bonds and overweight cash. However, YTD “all” asset classes are based on Morgan Stanley’s analysis in the green. Cash in USD at least gives you…
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Weekly Market Update – 07.02.2019
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Rally might continue, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Rally might continue, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel Financial repression is here to stay. Technicians have upgraded most equity markets to buy. However, the S&P 500 is now trading at the 200- day average but not above. The most hated rally is still up and running. The FED is on hold although the recent PMI data…
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