S&P 500 above its 200 day average: Climbing the wall of worry Part II, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel

 

S&P 500 above its 200 day average: Climbing the wall of worry Part II, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel

S&P 500 above its 200-day average and a golden cross. So far a classical consolidation in an uptrend. Given the latest ECB decisions (to implement TLTRO III and to postpone a rate hike into 2020) we must admit that for once they are ahead of the curve! The ECB continues to reinvest maturing bonds and coupons from their balance sheet. There is even due to the sluggish growth outlook the chance for another version of QE. Not only a Powell but also a Draghi put. Some key soft Eco data (i.e. PMI in BRICs, PMI US and Swiss Industrial PMI) indicate that over the next 6-9 moths a very modest reacceleration of activity can be expected. The FED might only in autumn re-access the rate outlook or in the light of the latest US job data they might pause even longer. One month ago the US 10-year treasury yield chart has produced a death cross. History did rhyme i.e. the US yield has fallen from around 2.76% to 2.60%. But, it might now go slightly up. https://lnkd.in/eSx3YB4

Overall, the cimbing the wall of worry continues. The S&P 500 will retest the 2’800er level.

 

 

Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6491335713437597697

Published: 11.03.2019 by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel

 

Disclaimer

These Market Business Reviews (further BR) are provided for information purposes only and for the use by the recipient. This document was produced by Blackfort Capital AG (hereafter «BF») with the greatest of care and to the best of its knowledge and belief. Although information and data contained in this document originate from sources that are deemed to be reliable, no guarantee is offered regarding the accuracy or completeness. Therefore, BF does not accept any liability for losses that might occur through the use of this information. The BR does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate all of the fac­tors that would be relevant to a recipient considering entering into any transaction and any recipient hereof should conduct its own investigation and analysis. In addition, the BR includes certain projections and forward-looking statements. Such projections and forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such projections and forward-looking statements will be realised. The actual results may vary from the anticipated results and such variations may be material. No representations or warranties are made as to the accuracy or reasonableness of such assumptions or the projections or forward-looking statements based thereon. This document is expressly not intended for persons who, due to their nationality or place of residence, are not permitted access to such information under local law. It may not be reproduced either in part or in full without the written permission of BF.

© Blackfort Capital AG. All Rights reserved.