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Market Watch. October 2019 II
Market Watch. October 2019 (II) Global economy… The IMF global economic outlook paints a dark picture: A slowdown to 3% global GDP growth due to the negative impact of trade wars, Brexit and Hong Kong riots. This is the weakest growth outlook since 2009. Meanwhile the bond market tells us an slightly different story for…
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Market Watch. October 2019 I
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A record of USD 13 trillion bonds are yielding negative, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
A record of USD 13 trillion bonds are yielding negative, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel Financial repression at work: i.e. transferring wealth from creditors (private sector) to debitors (public sector). Globally around USD 13 trillion of bonds or in Europe around 75% of all government bonds have a negative yield. For instance, German government bonds up…
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Mind the Gap! By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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The most hated rally is alive… By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
The most hated rally is alive… By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel “When investors are as defensive as they are today, the S&P 500 has averaged an annualized percentage return of more than 18% over the next six months, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, more than double its average over…
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ECB does not rule out further QE and rate cuts! By by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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ECB announces more rate cuts and QE, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
ECB announces more rate cuts and QE, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel ECB dos not rule out further QE and rate cuts! 10 year bund yield dropped to -0.305% Netherlands 10year yield at -0.15% and Switzerland at -0.55%. But also US 10y fell by 5bps and stands at around 2.04% “Further cuts in policy interest…
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Climbing the wall of worry continues, by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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Sanctions against Mexico? By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
Sanctions against Mexico? Another tweet, new tariffs on Mexican exports…. Forecasting erratic political external shocks is impossible. The impact of these tweets are significant: For instance a negative 10y3m yield spread in the US, German bund yields have reached a record low yield level, stock markets trade at or below the 200 day average. China’s PMI…
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Secular bull or not? By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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All-time highs to be expected despite volatility? By Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
All-time highs to be expected despite volatility? Despite the new burst of market volatility, long-time bull Edward Yardeni sees a return to all-time highs this year. https://lnkd.in/diBqUgs According to CNBC: This outlook has not appeared to be resonating on Wall Street. Similar happens to me since 2009 when I have made and continue to make a bullish…