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Market Watch August 2023
US GDP surprisingly grew at a rate of 2.4 The latest GDP data for the US surprised with a growth rate of 2.4%, prompting optimistic remarks from Fed chair Powell about the economy’s resilience and the potential to avoid a recession. However, he also mentioned that depending on the data post a pause in September, additional rate hikes…
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Market Watch July 2023
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Market Watch December 2022
Outlook 2023: Central banks might reach their terminal rate in H1, but no cuts are in sight The latest rate-policy-outlook from the Fed, the SNB and the BOE were all saying we keep rising and in inflation will be sticky. But the hawkish surprise was the ECB. Finally, they admitted the obvious. Not only will inflation stay at…
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Market Watch November 2022
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Market Watch October 2022
Macro Update: Core inflation in the US and Eurozone will trigger sharp rate hikes The latest rise of headline CPI data to above 10% in the UK and to 9.9% in the Eurozone were in line with expectations. But like in the US, we do see in Europe a surge of core CPI where food and energy are…
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Market Watch September 2022
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Bi-Weekly August 2022
Macro Update: The US Service sector slows down significantly in August The US economy is facing more headwinds during the last weeks. The service sector has pushed the whole economy into a significant slowdown. Technically we can argue that after two quarters with negative US GDP growth rates during 1H 2022 we might be already in recession. However,…
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Bi-Weekly. July 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. May 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I Macro Update: Fed’s 2nd rate hike raises the risk of the US economy hard landing The US Fed has risen its policy rate by 50 basis points. This was mostly expected by the markets and analysts. However, only after the Fed chair M. Powell said “no” to a 75-basis point increase in the future…
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Bi-Weekly. April 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I Macro Update: Spikes in commodity prices might push US into recession in H2 2022 The US has little trade interaction with the Russian Federation, but they face now a severe risk of falling into a recession. On one hand commodity shocks coincident with recessions but on the other hand it might be the Fed…
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