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Bi-Weekly. April 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. April 2022 I Macro Update: The Fed might push the US economy into recession The US Fed has convinced the market that during the next 6 meetings in 2022 there will be 7 rate hiking steps. Therefore, we might see 2% at the end of the year. However, in the light of US inflation of 7.9% this…
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Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 II
Bi-Weekly. February 2022 II Macro Update: Higher headline inflation increases the risk of central bank policy errors The latest Fed’s release was “a masterpiece of saying what markets already know”, as UBS stated. March rate hike and quantitative policy tightening faster than before was discussed. They question of how many rate hikes will we see during 2022 is…
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 I
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Tapering means a touch less stimulus and not tightening
Blackfort Insights 05.11.2021 The fed committee has decided to start with the tapering. In November 15 billion dollars less bond purchase and another 15 billion in December. After that the reduction will be data dependent. However, the expectation is that until the end of June 2022 the program might be terminated. Ray Dalio, co-CIO of Bridgewater expects that…
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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. October 2021 (II)
Macro Update: Inflation is here to stay at higher levels Is inflation transitory? Based on the central bank narrative, next year it should go back to levels between 2-3%. However, the latest CPI data of Spain at 5.5% YoY came as a shock (expected 4.6%). In Germany, the inflation data from last month stood at 4.1% and we…
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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. October 2021 (I)
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Sell the rallies or buy the dips?
We are glad to share with you Blackfort’s latest CIO call Sell the rallies or buy the dips? by Dr. Andreas Bickel, CIO of Blackfort. Topics discussed in the video: · S&P 500 tested successfully the 100-day average. Is this trend going to continue? · Is the rise of yields due to a strong economic outlook or due to fear…
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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. September 2021 (II)
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FOMO – S&P 500 and CSI 300 have seen both a rally into the closing
Blackfort Insights 09.09.2021 Since last year’s September, we have not seen a pullback in the S&P 500 of more than 5%. This week we do see some minor pullbacks in both CSI 300 (China A-shares) and in the S&P 500. FOMO is back. Yesterday in the US we had 8 earnings warnings of which 4 came from major…
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