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Market Watch November 2022
Macro Update: More sings of a significant economic slowdown in the US The latest US flash PMI data points towards a significant economic slowdown, which gives the fed room to slow down its rate hiking pace. However, the US economy still sends strong signals out about the recent economic development. Strong durable good orders and a resilient consumer…
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Market Watch October 2022
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Market Watch September 2022
Macro Update: After 700 bps Rate Hikes Global Markets Tumble The latest mini rate hiking cycle has brought us more than 700 basis points higher policy rates in developed countries. The Swedish risk bank has surprised with a 1% step while the Bank of England has disappointed with a too small step of 0.5%. Also, the Fed has…
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Bi-Weekly August 2022
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Bi-Weekly. July 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. July 2022 I Macro Update: A recession seams unavoidable in Europe, like stagflation in the US v§After a weak Q1 US GDP we do expect a low but positive figure for Q2. Forward-looking however we fear that the US will fall into a stagflation. Where the real GDP will be around zero, but the nominal GDP should…
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Bi-Weekly. May 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. April 2022 I
Bi-Weekly. April 2022 I Macro Update: The Fed might push the US economy into recession The US Fed has convinced the market that during the next 6 meetings in 2022 there will be 7 rate hiking steps. Therefore, we might see 2% at the end of the year. However, in the light of US inflation of 7.9% this…
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Bi-Weekly. March 2022 I
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 II
Bi-Weekly. February 2022 II Macro Update: Higher headline inflation increases the risk of central bank policy errors The latest Fed’s release was “a masterpiece of saying what markets already know”, as UBS stated. March rate hike and quantitative policy tightening faster than before was discussed. They question of how many rate hikes will we see during 2022 is…
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Bi-Weekly. February 2022 I
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Tapering means a touch less stimulus and not tightening
Blackfort Insights 05.11.2021 The fed committee has decided to start with the tapering. In November 15 billion dollars less bond purchase and another 15 billion in December. After that the reduction will be data dependent. However, the expectation is that until the end of June 2022 the program might be terminated. Ray Dalio, co-CIO of Bridgewater expects that…
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