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Bi-Weekly. July II
Macro Update: Strong macro indicators in the Eurozone The latest releases of macro data and forward-looking macro indicators do still show a picture of solid but slower global growth ahead of us. The latest IFO climate clock stayed in the bottom quadrant and indicated a slowdown. However, healthy but slightly slower growth is a very good environment not…
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After the storm & before the next leg up?
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Bi-Weekly. July 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. July 2021 Macro Update: Global PMIs start rolling over while China restarts monetary stimulus Worldwide general expectations suggest monetary tightening across the globe as we already see it in Russia and Brazil where central banks have recently increased their policy rates. However, China’s central bank has just announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for…
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US Core CPI surges to 5%, treasury bonds rally and 10-year yield drops below 1.45%
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Bi-Weekly. June 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. June 2021 I Macro Update: The Fed and rates in 2021 The United Nations (UN) has just announced that global food prices surge to highest levels in almost a decade. Food prices have been rising for 12 months in a row including May, which is the longest stretch in a decade. Bloomberg comments that “Higher food costs…
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Biden’s announcement and US cyclical stocks rally
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Bi-Weekly. May 2021 II
Bi-Weekly. May 2021 II Macro Update: The Fed and rates in 2021 The expected Fed fund rate for March 2022 has risen after the release of higher-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, a rate hike during the next 12 months is expected. The US breakeven inflation is anticipating much higher 10-year treasury yields. We believe that both…
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US and China tech stocks before a rebound?
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Double US taxes and equity market seloff
Blackfort Insights 23.04.2021 The White House plans to double the capital gains tax rate for those earning USD 1 mil or more, from 20% to 39.6%, This would affect about 0.32% of all American taxpayers who report adjusted gross income of more than USD 1 mil and declared at the same time capital gains or losses on…
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US economy is bouncing back
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Fed Chair Powell pushed markets into the green
Blackfort Insights 09.04.2021 He did it again. Fed chair Powell has managed to calm down markets after his recent remarks at the IMF panel discussion. US equities markets closed all up and treasury yields decreased pushing prices up. We might see 10-year UST go down to 1.5% before we resee the recently reached year high of 1.77%. Such…
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