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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. September 2021 (II)
Macro Update: Sticky high US inflation data pushes junk bond yields below zero Is inflation transitory? We still don’t know. But the latest US CPI data shows 5.3% year-on-year price changes. We would call that sticky at elevated levels. As a result, high yield bonds do deliver negative real returns just as the European ones. The formerly called…
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FOMO – S&P 500 and CSI 300 have seen both a rally into the closing
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Bi-Weekly. Blackfort. September 2021 (I)
Macro Update: Jackson Hole meeting – 2021 tapering and no rate hikes till 2023 Jerome Powell, Fed chair, gave a very dovish speech at Jackson Hole conference in August. On one hand he delivered the expected message that at the end of 2021 the Fed will start with the tapering, but on the other hand he surprised with…
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Sell the Rally in the US stocks?
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Bi-Weekly. August I
Macro Update: Slower growth and higher inflation due to Delta strain Due to rising COVID cases, Israel might be forced to enter another lockdown. In the US the 4th wave has almost reached the level of the 3rd wave. To make matters worse, some scientists claim that the immunity of vaccinated people is gone after 146 days, i.e.…
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When have we observed a drop of more than 5% in the S&P 500?
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Bi-Weekly. July II
Macro Update: Strong macro indicators in the Eurozone The latest releases of macro data and forward-looking macro indicators do still show a picture of solid but slower global growth ahead of us. The latest IFO climate clock stayed in the bottom quadrant and indicated a slowdown. However, healthy but slightly slower growth is a very good environment not…
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After the storm & before the next leg up?
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Bi-Weekly. July 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. July 2021 Macro Update: Global PMIs start rolling over while China restarts monetary stimulus Worldwide general expectations suggest monetary tightening across the globe as we already see it in Russia and Brazil where central banks have recently increased their policy rates. However, China’s central bank has just announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for…
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US Core CPI surges to 5%, treasury bonds rally and 10-year yield drops below 1.45%
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Bi-Weekly. June 2021 I
Bi-Weekly. June 2021 I Macro Update: The Fed and rates in 2021 The United Nations (UN) has just announced that global food prices surge to highest levels in almost a decade. Food prices have been rising for 12 months in a row including May, which is the longest stretch in a decade. Bloomberg comments that “Higher food costs…