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Irrational Exuberance
Blackfort Insights 14.01.2021 Retail investors are out of control. GameStop rose yesterday 92% during the trading session, only to be followed by another rise of 102% in the after-hour trading. Reddit (in particular r/walstreetbets) and robinhood.com are the preferred space where retail investors choose their target and push with like-minded peers stocks up. In this case short sellers…
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Bi-Weekly. January 2021 I
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Signs of euphoria – But maybe we will only see a pullback in February
Blackfort Insights 14.01.2021 Signs of euphoria – But maybe we will only see a pullback in February Markets behave since November according to their historical pattern. After a good November and December, we face a very good start in January. If we were to continue the script, we would expect a minor consolidation followed by higher markets and…
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Bi-Weekly. December 2020 II
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Bi-Weekly. December 2020 I
Bi-Weekly. December 2020 I OECD cuts global GDP outlook while leading indicators rise The OECD revised its global GDP forecast. Unsurprisingly, they cut their estimate from 5% to 4%. Meanwhile soft indicators, normally not considered by economists, have improved across the globe except for Europe. China’s latest trade data reached an 18-year high and industrial production as well…
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Make or break: US equity markets hover around all-time highs
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Dow Jones above 30’000 for the first time
Blackfort Insights 25.11.2020 Dow Jones above 30’000 for the first time What a day! Nasdaq is above 12’000, and S&P 500, Russel 2000 and the Dow closed at record levels. Meanwhile the US sees another spike in new COVID-19 cases. It is as well remarkable that this surge was not accompanied by large volumes. There is little euphoria…
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Too fast and too high, but the pain trade is still up
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Bi-Weekly. November 2020 I
Bi-Weekly. November 2020 I Resilient Macro data in Asia and USA The latest macro data show a significant improvement in Asia. China Services PMI was higher at 56.8 in October. Exports rose to 11.4% while imports moderated at 4.7%, largely on the back of a fall in imported commodities, mainly by copper and crude oil. Similar picture is…
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Fireworks after the announcement that the COVID-19 vaccine works in 90% of the cases
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Today is election day – but will we know who is president by tomorrow?
Today is finally the last day of the US presidential campaign. However, Trump has already announced that tomorrow if there is no winner his lawyers are already ready to go to court. By law all votes which came by mail will not be counted out. Some states have already announced that it can take up to 2 weeks…