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Bi-Weekly. December 2020 I
Bi-Weekly. December 2020 I OECD cuts global GDP outlook while leading indicators rise The OECD revised its global GDP forecast. Unsurprisingly, they cut their estimate from 5% to 4%. Meanwhile soft indicators, normally not considered by economists, have improved across the globe except for Europe. China’s latest trade data reached an 18-year high and industrial production as well…
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Make or break: US equity markets hover around all-time highs
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Dow Jones above 30’000 for the first time
Blackfort Insights 25.11.2020 Dow Jones above 30’000 for the first time What a day! Nasdaq is above 12’000, and S&P 500, Russel 2000 and the Dow closed at record levels. Meanwhile the US sees another spike in new COVID-19 cases. It is as well remarkable that this surge was not accompanied by large volumes. There is little euphoria…
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Too fast and too high, but the pain trade is still up
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Bi-Weekly. November 2020 I
Bi-Weekly. November 2020 I Resilient Macro data in Asia and USA The latest macro data show a significant improvement in Asia. China Services PMI was higher at 56.8 in October. Exports rose to 11.4% while imports moderated at 4.7%, largely on the back of a fall in imported commodities, mainly by copper and crude oil. Similar picture is…
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Fireworks after the announcement that the COVID-19 vaccine works in 90% of the cases
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Today is election day – but will we know who is president by tomorrow?
Today is finally the last day of the US presidential campaign. However, Trump has already announced that tomorrow if there is no winner his lawyers are already ready to go to court. By law all votes which came by mail will not be counted out. Some states have already announced that it can take up to 2 weeks…
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The second wave of COVID-19 in Switzerland
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Bi-Weekly. October 2020 II
Bi-Weekly. October 2020 II Macro Update: The latest economic data from China and the USA shows surprise The latest macro data release in China showed that Q3 GDP grew at 4.9% – a touch below the consensus. But the numbers from September show a strong acceleration in the consumer area. The industrial sector is already above the pre-COVID…
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Market Watch. September 2020 II
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Selloff: More to come but we recommend buying the dip
We have seen a 2nd leg of this pullback. Although nobody can know how far this will go further down, most analysts look at the same charts. Based on the S&P 500 the distance to the 90-day average is around 4% and to the 200-day average is around 14%. We see today in the futures prices a further…
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