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Waiting for the Fed – Fear of missing out leads to euphoria
The Nasdaq Composite is above 10’000 for the first time in history, meanwhile the OECD has just published a revised down forecast for the global economy. Fig. 1: Nasdaq Composite is at all-time highs The Merrill Lynch Bull-Bear indicator is still at a very bullish level, not reflecting the recent rally and first sings of euphoria. Fig. 2:…
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Market Watch. June 2020 II
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Market Watch. June 2020 I
Market Watch. June 2020 I Most Economists have revised its GDP forecasts down The latest PMI data was slightly better than the previous ones. Except for China all PMIs are below the growth area. However, the informative value is limited due to the smaller number of survey-participants and due to the special economic situation caused by the lockdown.…
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S&P 500 continues to trade above its 200-day average / The breakout was driven by the non FAANG stocks
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Market Watch. May 2020 II
Market Watch. May 2020 II GDP forecasts for Q2 have been revised down globally The latest US GDP forecast for Q2 2020 has been revised down to minus 39% quarter over quarter annualized by Goldman Sachs. Fed chair Powell said in his latest speech that the Fed has unlimited lending power but no spending power. Therefore, it is…
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S&P 500 tries to break out of its trading range – Meanwhile most fund managers stay on the sideline
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S&P 500 is still in its trading range 2’800 – 2’950, meanwhile bad news is interpreted as good news
In the last 4 weeks the US markets have traded in a sideways channel after the strong recovery rally. If, however we dive deeper into the details we see that 495 stocks of the S&P 500 have lost value, but 5 tech stock are up more than 10% and have mainly driven the recent recovery rally. Fig. 1:…
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Market Watch. May 2020 I
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FOMO is back: Is the S&P 500 stuck in its resistance zone?
Fear of missing out (FOMO) is back. Global equity markets keep climbing the wall of worry. At the forefront is the S&P 500. So far, the re-test of the 2’400-2’600 area has not happened. By the contrary, we keep climbing. This cannot last forever. The technical picture is clear – we must see a pullback, but now fundamental…
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Make or break? S&P 500 is entering its resistance zone
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Oil makes the world go round. WTI May futures are below zero.
The S&P 500 has seen an expected pull back. But what comes next is uncertain. Today we will open in the green. Fig. 1: Is the expected pull back already over? This is one way of looking at it. If, however, we use our standard graph and check RSI, we are in the middle of a trading range…