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Is this just a bear market rally?
The most important question for an asset allocator still is: Have we already seen the bottom? The answer is completely open. In the UBS blog they find parallels between the actual bear market and the situation after the burst of the tech bubble. Fig.1: There were several bear markets rallies during the tech bubble decline Having lived through…
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Waiting for lockdown to end
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Yesterday’s question: How far can this relief rally go? Got the expected answer during US training hours
The rally has stopped. That based on yesterday’s chart was in the cards. Now it will be important that either 2’400 or 2’200 levels are not broken. The pullback is not a surprise, but the question is if the market already priced in the deteriorating news from the corona front from the US and its impact on the…
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How far can this relief rally go?
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Capitulation at equity markets? European equity markets keep being much cheaper than US markets
After three days of rising markets we see a consolidation today. One open point is if we have seen capitulation and a bottom? Both questions cannot be answered with certainty but there are some hints about the possible answer. Fig. 1: Cash is the king of the moment While we see massive inflows into cash the flip side…
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Bear market rally continues after both US parties agreed on a 2 trillion help program
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Unlimited QE from the FED while the US Senate blocks CARES
Overnight, in the US Senate politicians did not agree on the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) help program. It is a shame how careless politicians try to use this aid program for election purposes… The Fed stepped in with an unlimited QE program. Meanwhile we see finally a lockdown in the UK. I have just read…
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Wakeup Call in the US – Partial Lockdown
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Market Watch. March 2020 I
Market Watch. March 2020 I Fiscal Stimulus in the US / Monetary Stimulus from the ECB The European Central Bank has launched an extra emergency bond-buying program worth 750 billion euros ($820 billion) in the latest attempt to calm markets. This program is important but only for one reason: It keeps the Euro government bond markets functioned. We…
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“Consequences of FED’s and CBs’ decisions” by Blackfort CIO Dr. Andreas Bickel
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The Fed cuts rates to baisically Zero
The fed cut rates but it won’t help in the short run. It provides liquidity in US dollars globally which is very important! Borders are closing in Europa, people are not following the official measurements, therefore it is a question of time until other places after Spain, France, Italy, Austria will forbid any small (less than 5) group…