-
-
Bi-Weekly. October 2020 II
Bi-Weekly. October 2020 II Macro Update: The latest economic data from China and the USA shows surprise The latest macro data release in China showed that Q3 GDP grew at 4.9% – a touch below the consensus. But the numbers from September show a strong acceleration in the consumer area. The industrial sector is already above the pre-COVID…
-
Market Watch. September 2020 II
-
Selloff: More to come but we recommend buying the dip
We have seen a 2nd leg of this pullback. Although nobody can know how far this will go further down, most analysts look at the same charts. Based on the S&P 500 the distance to the 90-day average is around 4% and to the 200-day average is around 14%. We see today in the futures prices a further…
-
Market Watch. September 2020 I
-
The fed has delivered: More and longer rates at zero and an overshooting of inflation as key message
The fed new plan is to let the economy run hot, including an overshooting of inflation. However, there are doubts if monetary policy can really achieve that. Looking at inflation for the USD and Euro area both the Fed and ECB are struggling to create inflation and economic growth. This is not surprising. We believe that monetary stimulus…
-
US markets reach several new record highs – they look overbought, but they keep rising
-
Are the roaring twenties back?
Dr. Ed aka Ed Yardeni from Yardeni research, a well-known US strategist, reckons in his latest blog, that due to the stimulus and the disruptive new technologies (i.e. AI; robotics 5G, etc.). we could see a similar technical innovation and equity market development like in the roaring 1920-ies. There we have seen as well fast changes in industrial…
-
Too good to be true – stormy sea ahead of us – but after the storm the rally might continue
-
Market Watch. July 2020 II
Market Watch. July 2020 II Balance sheet recession must be fought with fiscal stimulus We are still living in a world of falling rates and extremely low government bond yields. Traditional economist are puzzled by the absence of inflation and reduced activity of borrowers. The combination of these factors refers us to “Japanification”, but completely misses out why…
-
Earnings might push the S&P 500 above its previous high
-
Market Watch. July 2020 I
Market Watch. July 2020 I Leading indicators surprise with a strong rebound The latest PMI data shows further improvement. Economists stick to their negative outlook while markets keep rising. We would argue that markets might be ahead of the actual reality, but leading indicators tell us that the future is less dark than the latest OECD and IMF forecasts.…