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Bi-Weekly. May 2021 II
Bi-Weekly. May 2021 II Macro Update: The Fed and rates in 2021 The expected Fed fund rate for March 2022 has risen after the release of higher-than-expected US inflation data. As a result, a rate hike during the next 12 months is expected. The US breakeven inflation is anticipating much higher 10-year treasury yields. We believe that both…
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US and China tech stocks before a rebound?
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Double US taxes and equity market seloff
Blackfort Insights 23.04.2021 The White House plans to double the capital gains tax rate for those earning USD 1 mil or more, from 20% to 39.6%, This would affect about 0.32% of all American taxpayers who report adjusted gross income of more than USD 1 mil and declared at the same time capital gains or losses on…
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US economy is bouncing back
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Fed Chair Powell pushed markets into the green
Blackfort Insights 09.04.2021 He did it again. Fed chair Powell has managed to calm down markets after his recent remarks at the IMF panel discussion. US equities markets closed all up and treasury yields decreased pushing prices up. We might see 10-year UST go down to 1.5% before we resee the recently reached year high of 1.77%. Such…
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Lockdown in Europe – but German IFO lead Indicators are on multiple years high
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The Fed is now behind the curve – US equity markets applause
Blackfort Insights 18.03.2021 The Fed is now behind the curve – US equity markets applause The Fed is walking on thin ice, but yesterday delivered an even more dovish statement than anticipated. They stated that Inflation might be a temporary phenomenon in 2021 but that is not a worrisome sign. Why is it so? Once the US…
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Bi-Weekly. March 2021 I
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A minor pullback – is it already over?
Blackfort Insights 25.02.2021 Two weeks ago, we have raised the question “To correct or not to correct? After a minor pull-back in the broad market and sharp selloffs in highflyers like Tesla or GameStop broad market indices look from a technical standpoint ready for a next leg up. The RSI came down to a neutral territory and…
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Bi-Weekly. February 2021 II
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To correct or not to correct, that is the question
Blackfort Insights 11.02.2021 To correct or not to correct, that is the question Equities have pulled back in January around 5% during 7 trading days only to be followed by a stronger rise in February to new record levels. Buying the dip is still the winning strategy. However, we are back to the extremely overbought area. Same situation…